There was hope that the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran would be a good step toward ending the conflict. Pundits argued at the time of the announcement that Iran was not trustworthy and never intended to abide by the agreed negotiations. The criticisms proved to be true.
GMC took a less negative view at the time and argued that even if Iran did not abide by the Memorandum, diplomacy was a suggested way forward. With the repeated attacks of Iran on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, breaking the agreement, and the United States retaliatory attacks, the bombing continues. The problem with this stance is that the United States cannot bomb its way out of the potential quagmire this conflict can produce.
To move forward in ending the problem, the United States needs a different approach to Iran. The Trump Administration has made a few miscalculations, causing the conflict to escalate. The first error was believing the people of Iran would en masse protest, rise, and overthrow the Islamic Revolutionary government. For whatever reason, the citizens of Iran did not revolt and probably will not.
Then there is a prevailing thought that if the head of the snake is lopped off, the body will cease to function. The top leaders of Iran were killed in past bombing attacks, and according to Trump, the leadership in Iran is already a third wave of officials. The mistake is limiting thinking to Western standards. Iran does not think and act like Westerners. Killing the leaders did not dissuade Iran from attacking ships and bases with drones.
Western civilization is far different from Islamic culture. Radical Islamists do not follow the rules of logic and reasonableness. They focus on something altogether different, and if the people of Iran suffer, it is something secondary to eliminating the perceived enemy—The West.
How can you negotiate with people who want to kill you above all else? These Islamic revolutionaries would rather die than give in to a Western notion of a civilized world. This is a big reason why the MOU failed. Iran will never cease causing trouble as long as the Islamic extremists hold power.
Another potential problem is the uncertainty of who is in power in Iran. It could be the third stringers, as Trump claims, of something more complicated. What we don’t know is who has the authority to make a deal or order drones to attack international ships. Or could it be something more bifurcated? There may be a group within the government entering into negotiations and another group ordering the bombings, with no coordination between the two. The possibility of multiple ruling groups in Iran will never lead to a unanimous decision to stop the war against the West and end their desire to have a nuclear bomb.
Keeping Iran from getting a nuclear bomb should not be the responsibility of the United States alone. All Western countries must band together to keep the radical Islamists at bay. That is the only way to deal with Iran, and any miscalculations will not make a difference.
We must think differently now. Instead of unconditional surrender, the objective should be to degrade Iran’s military capabilities and have the civilized world exert pressure by severely restricting its economy. If Iran continues to misbehave, crank down harder. No cash, no bombs. It is that simple, regardless of what the Revolutionaries may think.