The United States and Iran have entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to end the three-month conflict. Built into the agreement is 60 days to negotiate details that lead from a ceasefire to a lasting agreement.
The MoU addresses Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and regional security. Iran agreed to reopen the Straits to all commercial shipping, while the U.S. would begin to lift the naval blockade as early as Friday.
There are plenty of Monday morning quarterbacks commenting on the tenuous pact between the two countries. Much of the criticism is valid because the United States is dealing with Iran, the world’s largest exporter of terrorism, and has a track record of not keeping its word.
Dealing with Iran raises the question of whether it can be trusted to follow through on its commitments. Skepticism is in order, and the length of the free passage of the Straits of Hormuz will indicate Iran’s true intentions in the short term.
Also, in question is whether Iran will be nuclear-free in perpetuity. For the foreseeable future, Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been significantly diminished. However, depending on the future president, the United States foreign policy may change, allowing Iran the possibility of reigniting its nuclear bomb program. Restarting the program would take considerable time and money, if it is even possible.
Universally, the common refrain is that Iran cannot be trusted. That doesn’t mean that the MoU is useless or of no value. On the contrary, it is a huge step forward for peace in the Middle East and the world.
Chances are, the Iranians will, at least initially, follow the agreement and hope that political power shifts in America, allowing them to backslide on their promises—a legitimate concern, with one caveat. Unlike previous administrations, which worked to placate Iran and kept intact their military capabilities, the same cannot be true of Iran now.
The war achieved some important objectives. Iran’s navy and army are decimated and nonexistent. Their nuclear ambitions are up in smoke, and missile and drone factories are leveled. Iran’s economy is in shambles, and the previous leaders, both clerical and revolutionary, are dead. Iran is in free fall, and the quality of life for its citizens reflects the chaos.
The MoU is an acknowledgment from Iran that it cannot continue on the same path. If, for whatever reason, they go back on their word, the damage is already done, and they know it. It will take years to build back their military and decades without the world’s interference to even think of nuclear power.
At the very least, ignoring the agreement’s conditions will lead to greater U.S. military involvement, which Iran must factor into its calculations. In the short term, Iran has to accept the deal, and perhaps those holding on to power by a fingernail may want time to regroup and strengthen their position. The civilized world hopes that the revolutionaries, weakened by the war, are driven out and that a democracy arises for the people.
Without an agreement, the reality of Iran becoming a positive member of the world is virtually impossible. The MoU is the first step, and although some remain doubtful, it has already brought some promising results.