To Bomb or Not To Bomb

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Trump told his senior aides on Tuesday that he has approved a mission to use the infamous Buster bomb to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapon site, but has withheld his final order. The target is the Fordo nuclear enrichment plant in central Iran. The Fordo plant is subterranean within a mountain range, deep enough that regular bombs could not reach it.  Only the Buster bomb, an ordinance that Israel does not have, can achieve the destruction necessary to eliminate Iran’s nuclear bomb program. This scenario can not be accomplished without the assistance of the United States.    

If the plant is to be destroyed, the United States would have to provide the massive bomb and the plane to carry it. Because of the integral part the United States would have to play in inhibiting Iran from producing an A-bomb, even some of his ardent supporters like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, and Taylor Majorie Green have openly criticized any bombing of Iran. They claim that American incursion will repeat the disasters of Bush’s regime change and an extended war that will not end.

Others like Mark Levin, Sean Hannity, and megadonors Isaac Perlmutter and Miriam Adelson suggest that ever since Jimmy Carter, the United States has dealt with Iran with kid gloves, only leading to Iran as the biggest state sponsor of terrorism in the world.  They conclude that bombing is a long time coming.

Whether supporting the bombing or not, those who make their opinions known are not the president of the United States.  The decision rests with Trump and what he will do; no one is for sure. However, looking at the President’s recent comments, one can surmise his thoughts.

Trump has been consistent in his remarks that he is opposed to endless wars and regime change. He has been the only president in recent times who has openly looked for other options to relieve international tensions without deploying troops.

Part of his strategy in resolving the thorny issue of Iran and nuclear weapons is to hold firm with his position that Iran cannot have any atomic armaments. He is unwavering in his position, which might suggest his willingness to bomb Fordo. He is keeping his options open for Trump, and this may be the last option if all else fails.

What is interesting is that Trump is holding no verbal punches. Days ago, he lamented the fact Iran did not take his deal to negotiate, adding everyone should be leaving Tehran. Later, he made public his comment that he knows where the Ayatollah (Iran’s leader) is, but will not kill him for now.

Yesterday, when Trump was questioned about whether the United States would strike Iran, he said, “I may do it, I may not.” What Trump is saying and what he is not is a strategy of buying some time, hoping negotiations can begin with Iranian officials. There are indications that Trump’s plan might be working. News came out that three Iranian military planes, including the presidential aircraft, have landed in Omar. The Times of Jerusalem published the account and observed that the flights are probably Iranian negotiators headed for ceasefire talks. Oman brokered nuclear program talks before Israel began its offensive.

Trump is also aware the recent attacks and the killing of prominent military figures and scientists have severely weakened Iran’s nuclear program. There is also a level of chaos in Iran, and attempts to reorganize will be difficult for the regime. Because of the attacks and the disorganization of the country, the creation of Iran’s nuclear bomb is not imminent.  This fact alone gives time for negotiations to go forward.

Having mentioned all the salient facts, you should not be surprised if Trump does not use the Bunker Buster bomb on Iran. We don’t think he will, and he will bring peace to the Middle East through his talent to negotiate with almost anyone.

We hope military action is the last resort, not the first. With Trump at the wheel of foreign policy, there is a good chance the issue of Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb may be resolved without U.S. military intervention.